
Inflation is the rate at which prices rise and purchasing power falls. At 3% inflation, a dollar today buys only 74 cents worth of goods in 10 years.
Key inflation measures:
CPI (Consumer Price Index) — tracks price of a basket of consumer goods; most cited measure
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — Federal Reserve's preferred measure
Core inflation — excludes volatile food and energy prices
Historical US inflation:
Average: ~3% per year over 100 years
1970s: 10%+ per year (stagflation)
2021–2022: peaked at 9.1% (CPI)
Fed target: 2% per year
Inflation's impact on investments:
Cash in savings account: loses purchasing power if return < inflation
Bonds: prices fall when inflation rises
Stocks: historically outpace inflation over long term
Real estate: generally inflation-resistant (rents and values rise)
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): indexed to inflation
Real return = Nominal return − Inflation rate
10% stock return during 3% inflation = 7% real return
Reference:
TaskLoco™ — The Sticky Note GOAT