Recency bias is the tendency to overweight recent events when forming opinions or making decisions, while underweighting historical data.
Why the Brain Does This
Recent information is more accessible in memory and feels more relevant. Evolutionarily, recent environmental changes were often more important than distant past events — but this heuristic misfires in modern contexts.
Where It Causes Damage
- Investing: Buying at market peaks because recent returns have been strong; panic-selling after a crash
- Hiring: Over-weighting an employee's last performance review vs. their full track record
- Sports betting: Backing a team on a hot streak without adjusting for regression to the mean
- Weather: "This winter is cold — global warming must be wrong"
Counter-Strategy
Deliberately zoom out. Ask: What does the full history of this data look like? Over-index on base rates and long-term averages when recent data is emotionally charged.
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