Normalcy bias is the tendency to underestimate the possibility and impact of a catastrophic event — and to continue behaving as if everything is normal even in the face of clear warning signs.

The Evacuation Problem

Studies of disaster evacuations consistently find that people delay far longer than optimal — and often ignore clear signals entirely. During the 9/11 World Trade Center evacuation, the average occupant waited 6 minutes before beginning to evacuate. Many searched for belongings, made phone calls, or waited for confirmation.

Why the Brain Resists Catastrophizing

• Most disasters never materialize from warning signs — the brain learns from this frequency
• Accepting catastrophic risk requires expensive action; dismissing it is cost-free (until it isn't)
• Social norms: if nobody else is panicking, it must not be serious

Modern Applications

• Climate change action delay
• Personal health — ignoring symptoms hoping they'll resolve
• Business — continuing a failing strategy because major change is unthinkable
• Financial — ignoring systemic risk signals during bull markets

Reference:

Wikipedia: Normalcy Bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias