The impact bias is the tendency to overestimate the emotional impact — both intensity and duration — of future events on well-being, whether positive or negative.

We Are Resilience Machines

Daniel Gilbert's research shows that people dramatically overestimate how long they'll feel bad after a breakup, job loss, or rejection — and how good they'll feel after a promotion, windfall, or achievement. Actual happiness returns to baseline far faster than predicted.

The Role of Psychological Immune System

Humans have a remarkable unconscious capacity to rationalize, reframe, and adapt to negative events. We manufacture positive interpretations — and we do it without noticing, which is why we don't factor it into predictions.

Consequences of Impact Bias

• Fear of failure is disproportionate to how bad failure actually feels when it happens
• Over-investment in achieving specific goals under the assumption they'll transform happiness
• Staying in bad situations to avoid imagined catastrophic transitions

The Research Quote

People who suffer serious accidents or win the lottery show remarkably similar happiness levels within a year. Adaptation is the dominant force.

Reference:

Wikipedia: Impact Bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_bias