The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge in a domain overestimate their competence — while true experts tend to underestimate theirs.

The Four Stages of Competence

1. Unconscious incompetence — You don't know what you don't know. Confidence is high.
2. Conscious incompetence — You realize how much you're missing. Confidence crashes.
3. Conscious competence — You can do it, but it takes effort.
4. Unconscious competence — Mastery. Skills are automatic. Confidence is calibrated.

Why Experts Underestimate Themselves

Experts assume others find what they find easy. They project their own skill level onto the general population — the opposite of beginner overconfidence.

Practical Implication

The most dangerous person in a meeting is the one with just enough knowledge to sound certain. True mastery comes with intellectual humility.

Reference:

Wikipedia: Dunning-Kruger Effect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect